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      Aral Sea
Knowledge Products
Home
Central Asia and the Aral Sea
Catastrophe
The shrinking
Population living
Vulnerable population living
Climate change in Central Asia
Drought
Annual mean temperature
Consecutive dry days
Precipitation during dry months
Precipitation during wet months
Water and agriculture in arid areas
Analytical framework
Drought - Rainfed agriculture
Drought - Irrigated agriculture
Flood - Rainfed agriculture
SDG progress
Restoration
Climate adaptation
Cooperation mechanism
Solutions
Cooperation
Key adaptation strategy
Overview Catastrophe The Shrinking Population living Vulnerable population living
Climate profile Climate change in Central Asia Drought Annual mean temperature Consecutive dry days Precipitation during dry months Precipitation during wet months Water and agriculture in Arid Areas
Climate risks Analytical framework Drought-rainfed agriculture Drought-irrigated agriculture Flood-rainfed agriculture
Resilience SDG progress and resilience Restoration Climate adaptation Cooperation mechanism
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Climate change impact scenarios in the Aral Sea

Sub-regional pathways for adaptation and resilience

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How drought will be more frequent, intensified and prolonged?

This section explains the climate projection related to drought under SSP2 and SSP3 near and long-term scenarios. There are three drought-related climate indicators namely temperature rise, increase in number of dry days, and decrease in precipitation during dry months.

The region will experience decreased precipitation throughout most of the year. However, during high precipitation season between December and February, there will be an increase in rainfall.

The next section explains projections of climate under SSP2 and SSP3 near and long-term scenarios. There are four climate indicators namely temperature rise, increase in number of dry days, decrease in precipitation during dry months, and increase in precipitation during the wet months.

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What are the projected changes and impacts due to climate change?
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Analytical framework for climate change study of Aral Sea

To assess the agriculture land exposure to climate and environmental risk, a framework was developed using various data and models. Datasets from NASA Earth observation data, the ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) at 30-metres resolution, WorldPop spatial demographic data, and Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) are used for the Aral sea.

Earth observation

NASA GFSAD 1. cropland 2. Crop types

Digital elevation model

ASTER GDEM, 2018
ASTER Global Water Body Dataset (ASTWBD), 2018.

Climate projection model

CMIP6, 2021

Aridity

CGIAR, 2019

Spatial analysis

ArcMap and QGIS

3D modeling

ArcGIS Pro

Analysis

MS Excel

Cygwin

Command line windows

WorldPoP

Spatial demographic data

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Where are the risk hotspots located?
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What are the strategies for climate change adaptation in the Aral Sea?
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SDG progress and resilience of North and Central Asia

The graph shows the progress towards achieving SDGs in North and Central Asia. Since Goal 13, 14 and 15 are significantly related to the Aral Sea catastrophe, more efforts are needed to meet the targets for these goals.

Regressing trends linked with the Aral Sea catastrophe

Managing climate risk, natural resoures

Strengthen resilience and adaptative capacity of climate related disasters
Protect and restore ecosystems
Reduce marine pollution
Combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation, Bio-diversity conservation

Source: ESCAP SDG Progress 2022

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Restoration of Aral Sea holds the key for achieving SDGs in Central Asia

Here are the five key adaptation strategies for the transboundary hazard of the Aral Sea. Among five strategies, multi-hazard risk assessment and early warning system is useful in mitigating cropland exposure to multi-hazard, particularly drought and flood. Early warning monitoring is also necessary to plan and reduce the impact of multi-hazard on agriculture and people.

Improving dryland agriculture crop production
Making new infrastructure resilient
Making water resources management more resilient
Nature based solutions: green infrastructure
Multi-hazard risk assessment and early warning systems
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Towards a sub-regional cooperation mechanism

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The key indicators of climate change in Central Asia is the state of glaciers and snow cover, as well as growing desertification in the region.

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Floods will be more severe and prolonged, and droughts will be more frequent and lengthier.

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In this context, adaptation measures must integrate climate change scenarios into long-term plans, programs at all administrative levels.

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What are the solutions for climate change adaptation in the Aral Sea?

The figure depicts solutions for climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction in the Aral Sea. Sub-regional cooperation, national adaptation measures that include transboundary risks as well as sectoral development work are required.

Sub-regional solutions

Joint climate change adaptation measures through regional cooperation among the Aral Sea Basin countries

National Adaptation Plan that includes transboundary risks
  • National DRR strategies
  • Voluntary National Review
  • Nationally Determined Contributions
Sectors (Agriculture, Water, Energy, and others)

to include transboundary risks

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Methodology
  • Multi-criteria analysis on agriculture exposure to drought in arid areas
  • Multi-criteria analysis on agriculture exposure to flood
  • Proxy indicators for constructing adaptation matrix
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Full report
  • The Aral Sea, Central Asian Countries and Climate Change in the 21st Century
  • Managing in-land water disasters in the Aral Sea: sub-regional pathways for adaptation and resilience.
  • Managing in-land water disasters in the Aral Sea: sub-regional pathways for adaptation and resilience. Summary of Key Results.
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Find out more for countries in the Aral Sea.
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
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Decision Support System

An information system that supports business and organizational decision-making activities, provided by UN.

Hazards Hotspots

Explore the location of multiple hazard hotspots and investigate the exposure and vulnerability of populations and infrastructure sectors

Economic Impact

Cost of natural hazard-induced disasters to the global economy

Adaptation & Priorities

Climate adaptation cost and priorities of climate adaptation in the subregions

Country Analysis

Explore data and access policy information on Asia-Pacific economies using interactive charts and smart filtering. Customize your comparisons using indicator and country selection to get meaningful insights.
Hazard Hotspots
Examine the hazard vulnerability using risk scenarios and historical data analysis for selected natural hazards.
  • Climate-related and biological multi-hazard
  • Drought
  • Flood
  • Heatwave
  • Cyclone
  • Earthquake and Tsunami
Economic Impact
Cost of natural hazard-induced disasters to the global economy
  • Regional Economic Impact
  • East and North-East Asia
  • North and Central Asia
  • Pacific
  • South-East Asia
  • South and South-West Asia
  • Pacific Small Island Developing States
  • Subregional organization
  • Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC)
  • Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO)
  • South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC)
Decision Support System
An information system that supports business and organizational decision-making activities, provided by UN.
  • Overview
Adaptation Cost & Priorities
Climate adaptation cost and priorities of climate adaptation in the subregions
  • Regional Overview
  • East and North-East Asia
  • North and Central Asia
  • Pacific
  • South-East Asia
  • South and South-West Asia
  • Pacific Small Island Developing States
  • Subregional organization
  • Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC)
  • Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO)
  • South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC)
Country Analysis
Explore data and access policy information on Asia-Pacific economies using interactive charts and smart filtering. Customize your comparisons using indicator and country selection to get meaningful insights.
  • Overview
  • Data Explorer
  • Policy Search
  • Country Profiles
  • Methodology
Regional Cooperation for Transboundary Hazard
  • Aral Sea